RBA interest rates live: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today before cash rate decision and announcement – latest news
By Saghir Hussain ·
The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to lift its cash rate to an 18-year high today, the fifth hike in 2025, and the shockwave will hit British kitchen tables before the week is out.
Why a Sydney decision matters in Sheffield
Governor Michele Bullock’s board meets at 2.30pm AEST. Markets have priced in a 25-basis-point move to 4.6 per cent, but the accompanying statement will matter more than the number. If the RBA signals “further tightening” — code for another hike in December — global bond yields will jump. The Bank of England watches Sydney closely; when the antipodean tightening cycle runs hot, Threadneedle Street feels pressure to keep Bank Rate restrictive for longer.
For the 1.2 million UK-born residents in Australia, and the 150,000 Australians living in Britain, the transmission is immediate. Variable mortgage repayments in Sydney or Melbourne rise tonight. Renters face another round of “catch-up” increases as landlords pass on costs. In London, a British family remitting money to adult children in Brisbane sees the pound buy fewer Australian dollars — again.
The small-business squeeze
It’s not just households. UK exporters selling into Australia — whisky, pharmaceuticals, professional services — face a double hit. Higher Australian rates cool consumer demand down under. A stronger Aussie dollar (if the hike surprises hawkish) makes British goods pricier on Sydney shelves. Meanwhile, British importers of Australian beef, wine and lithium pay more in sterling terms.
“Margins are already paper-thin,” says a Leeds-based food importer who asked not to be named. “We absorbed the last three RBA moves. This one we’ll have to pass on. My customers in independent delis across Yorkshire will feel it at the till.”
Bailey’s dilemma
The Monetary Policy Committee meets next Thursday. Andrew Bailey has insisted UK rates are “sufficiently restrictive,” but a hawkish RBA surprise complicates that narrative. If Australia — with lower inflation than the UK — keeps tightening, the argument for holding at 5.25 per cent in Britain weakens. Swaps markets already price a 40 per cent chance of a November BoE hike; that rises if Bullock sounds aggressive.
Back in Birmingham, Manchester, or a high street in Glasgow, the chain is clear: Sydney tightens → global yields rise → UK fixed-rate mortgage deals reprice upward → first-time buyers pull back → builders slow down → apprentices lose shifts.
The RBA’s mandate is Australian inflation. The consequences, as ever, are global.
So here’s the question: when your mortgage broker texts you next week that the two-year fix just jumped 0.15 per cent, will you blame Canberra — or the Chancellor who pretends foreign central banks don’t set British interest rates?