Sara Duterte, Leni Robredo gap narrows in Octa presidential survey
By Saghir Hussain ·
The Philippines just served up a proper political thriller — and the world should be paying attention. Octa Research's latest survey shows Sara Duterte's lead over Leni Robredo has collapsed by seven points in a hypothetical 2028 presidential match-up. That's not a wobble. That's a earthquake in a country where the Duterte name has been political gold for a decade.
Here's why this matters far beyond Manila. The Philippines sits on the frontline of the South China Sea standoff. Duterte's "friendship" with Beijing bought China breathing room; Robredo's camp would likely pivot hard back toward Washington and the EDCA bases agreement. Every percentage point in that poll shifts the strategic calculus for the Pentagon, for Beijing, for every claimant state from Hanoi to Jakarta.
And let's not pretend this is just about foreign policy. The Palace challenging PNP chief Marbil to arrest Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa — Duterte's drug-war enforcer — while the VP's numbers tank? That's open warfare between the Marcos and Duterte clans. The uni-team is dead. The question is whether it takes the institution of the vice presidency down with it.
For ordinary Filipinos watching water prices spike in Bengaluru or inflation bite in Birmingham, this feels familiar: political dynasties fighting over the steering wheel while the car heads for a cliff.
So here's my question — when the dust settles, will Filipinos get a genuine choice, or just a rebranded version of the same old power struggle?